Posts Tagged ‘terrorism’
When trade is forced to halt
Just a quick thought since I have no “uncomfortable” articles to share yet.. 
In our first meeting, we explored the possibility of global trade falling off the cliff. We talked about how a protectionist world could become reality. We stretched our imagination by wondering what happens if Singapore’s total trade volume falls by two-thirds as a result of this protectionist world.
But that was assuming that the decision to stop/lower trade was forced upon us.
What if (and this is a big IF) it is Singapore who chooses to stop trading? What if, for some out-of-the-box circumstances, it is better (for economic/security/social considerations) for Singapore to stop trading?
I came to this thought after pondering about terrorism and its associated risks on global trade. When 9/11 happened, airports were closed – temporarily. Could something big happen, so much so that trading nodes have to be closed on a longer-than-temporary, or -horror- permanent basis?
Beyond terrorism, there are also other non-trade-related threats that could completely disrupt trade. Perhaps widespread smuggling of radioactive materials? How about the restriction on movement of people (considered as a form of trade in services) across borders because of life-threatening viruses?
I’m sure there are many other scenarios that we can think of. I just wanted to introduce a new angle for us to think about, since we are more conditioned to think that we are at the mercy of external forces. And it is not completely unimaginable for Singapore to take a tough stance when the health and security of our people are threatened – we are taking one of the toughest measures among all countries in the current H1N1 episode.
So the big question is: What does it mean to Singapore if we are forced not to trade? How will a Singapore like that look like?
